An anonymous trader earned over $436,000 on the crypto-powered prediction market platform Polymarket after placing a $32,537 wager on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's removal from power — with the bulk of bets placed mere hours before President Trump announced Maduro's surprise capture on 3 January. The precise timing and the trader's narrow platform activity — the account was created the previous month with only four Venezuela-related positions — has fuelled suspicions of insider trading.
Polymarket data shows traders put the odds of Maduro's exit at just 6.5% on the afternoon of 2 January, but they jumped to 11% by shortly before midnight and surged in the early hours of 3 January — just before Trump posted on Truth Social that Maduro was in U.S. custody. Dennis Kelleher, chief executive of financial reform advocacy group Better Markets, told CBS the bet had all the hallmarks of a trade based on inside information. Several other Polymarket users also made tens of thousands of dollars from wagers on Maduro's capture, while the platform separately refused to pay out on a related market — $10.5 million worth of bets on a U.S. invasion of Venezuela — arguing that Maduro's capture did not qualify, angering gamblers. Democratic Congressman Ritchie Torres introduced a bill on 6 January seeking to ban government employees from trading on prediction markets where they possess material non-public information. The prediction market space has expanded rapidly: sports betting giants DraftKings and FanDuel, online broker Robinhood, and Trump's Truth Social platform have all announced prediction market offerings, while Donald Trump Jr. holds advisory roles at both Polymarket and Kalshi.
Regulatory oversight remains uncertain: prediction markets are regulated by the CFTC as event contracts rather than traditional gambling — allowing them to bypass state-level restrictions — while the CFTC under Trump's second term faces workforce cuts and leadership departures, with only one of five commissioner slots currently filled.
Sources:
