The Trump Administration's tariff policies are having a significant impact on crypto markets, with Bitcoin falling from highs well above $100,000 at the beginning of 2025 to a trough in the mid-80,000s for most of March. The upcoming tariff policy announcement on 2 April 2025—known as "Liberation Day"—is expected to introduce "reciprocal tariffs" against 15 countries, including China, Canada, and Mexico. According to James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, tariffs could negatively affect Bitcoin in the short term by slowing economic growth, reducing demand for risk assets, increasing inflation, and causing Bitcoin's price to drop temporarily, especially as it often correlates with equities.
Historical evidence shows that trade wars have generally been damaging to global growth—the Dingley Tariff Act (1897) with 52% import duties, the Payne-Aldrich Tariff Act (1909), and the Fordney-McCumber Act (1922) with tariffs exceeding 40% all had negative consequences. Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, estimates that tariffs have so far taken 2% off economic growth in 2025. Currently, Bitcoin's correlation with the NASDAQ is about 40%, significantly lower than its peak of 72%, and Bitcoin prices have suffered alongside other financial assets due to macroeconomic uncertainty, leading investors to seek safer assets like gold, which has risen 18% year-to-date in 2025.
In the long term, however, tariffs could be positive for Bitcoin—analysts suggest that tariff policies may weaken the dollar's dominance and create space for competitors, including Bitcoin. Omid Malekan, an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School, suggests that Bitcoin could be the new gold soon enough, as economic uncertainty could lead investors to seek out Bitcoin just as they have sought out gold in recent months. Pandl believes that after the Liberation Day announcement, crypto markets can focus back on fundamentals which are very positive, and with the increased appetite for currencies that aren't dollars, Bitcoin could hit new all-time highs in 2025, despite current pessimism around prices.
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Written byJeremy Le Bescont
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Bitcoin's price has declined amid escalating trade tensions under President Trump's tariff policies. Analysts outline three scenarios that could influence Bitcoin's trajectory, ranging from a rapid resolution boosting prices to a full-blown trade war causing further declines.
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Benjamin Schiller
